Tamilnadu Elections - hopes for a new beginning

Elections for the legislative assembly of Tamilnadu is on April 06, 2021.

Many of the opinion polls have predicted a win for the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) alliance.  Even Thuglak, which has appealed to its readers to vote for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), has hinted at a victory for the DMK alliance.

I wish to share some of my observations about this election:

First let us look at the DMK alliance:

  1. DMK alliance hopes to capitalize on the possible anti-incumbency against the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) which ran the government for the last 10 years.  While I am unable to see any strong ant-incumbency wave, the possibility of wanting a change of government for the sake of change is always there.
  2. DMK alliance also banks heavily on the party leaders and party cadres working really hard, eager to win this election, so that they can share the spoils of forming the government after 10 long years.
  3. DMK's sustained and motivated misinformation campaign against Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Prime Minister, Mr. Narendra Modi, may actually mislead people in Tamilnadu to vote against the alliance that they are part of. 
  4. Possible downsides to the DMK forming the government are the absence of a charismatic leader, memories of their misgovernance in the past, their outdated agenda of governance, their alleged clandestine support to divisive forces, their confrontational attitude with the present central government and the dynastic politics practiced by the first family and their coteries.
Now, let us look at the AIADMK alliance:

  1. I do not see any strong anti-incumbency against the AIADMK in this election.  Though people and party cadres reacted sharply, in early 2017, when the party was on the verge of being surrendered to the family which brought disrepute to the party and its erstwhile leader, the situation changed dramatically when the party leaders gathered the strength to disown and discard the family.  Also, the way the government managed the pandemic resulted in positive vibes towards them.  
  2. In the absence of charismatic leaders in both alliances, the present Chief Minister, Mr. Edappadi K. Palanisamy, has emerged as a friendly, caring and sensible person who is capable of taking a firm stand as and when it is required.  He supported the Farm laws when the popular opinion, peddled through a misinformation campaign, was against them.  He stood firmly against forming an alliance with the party floated by the family which brought disrepute to AIADMK.  He ensured that Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK), which was posturing and publicly humiliating him and the party, are not part of the alliance.  His untiring travel across Tamilnadu to review pandemic management programs won him applause across all sections of the public.
  3. Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK), which used to be a reluctant member in many of the alliances that they were part of, have wholeheartedly embraced this alliance, primarily due to the exclusive reservation of 10.5% for the Vanniyars, and are working really hard to ensure victory of the alliance candidates.  This is a welcome change which may result in better performance of the alliance in the northern and western regions.  Additional reason for enthusiasm for the PMK is the non-inclusion of DMDK as part of the alliance.
  4. While I may have my own reservations about efficacy of freebies, it is a reality in Tamilnadu for many elections now.  In this election, AIADMK has matched or even bettered DMK's promises of freebies.  In fact, they went ahead and implemented some of the freebies like loan waiver for different segments even before the elections were announced.  To that extend, it is a level playing field for both alliances with respect to freebies.
  5. Possible downsides to the AIADMK forming the government are the absence of a charismatic leader, fatigue due to being in governance for the last 10 years,  alleged corruption and the perception that they are subservient to the central government. 
Few words about the BJP's role in this election:
  1. Given the limited impact that they can create in this election, BJP has played its card really well.  Unlike the state leader of Indian National Congress (INC), who wailed his way to get 25 seats, BJP accepted the 20 seats offered to them as they chose to put the alliance's interests above the party's interests.
  2. They ensured the long standing demand of Devendrakula Velalar, a prominent community spread across Tamilnadu, to merge 7 sub-castes under one nomenclature, was fulfilled through an act of parliament.
  3. Their Vel Yatra, in response to the spontaneous outburst against defiling of the Kanda Shashti Kavacham, had a reasonable success in unifying Hindus across Tamilnadu against such deliberate attempts to humiliate their belief system.
  4. Untiring campaigning by many national leaders of BJP across the length and breadth of Tamilnadu may tilt the scales in their favor.
  5. The negative campaign against BJP and especially against Prime Minister, Mr. Narendra Modi, which was at its peak in 2019, has been effectively countered and blunted in this election due to proactive campaigning - both on the ground and on social media, by the Tamilnadu BJP.
  6. Finally, conferring Dadasaheb Phalke award on Mr. Rajinikanth may have an additional positive influence on his ardent fans who may already be inclined towards BJP.
Corruption does not appear to be a major issue in this election as both DMK and AIADMK have been accused of indulging in it.  For corruption to become a major election issue, there has to be a paradigm shift in the mindset of the voters in Tamilnadu and I don't see that happening in this election.

Makkal Needhi Maiam (MNM) alliance, Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam (AMMK) alliance and Naam Tamilar Katchi (NTK) will get to know their real strength in this election.  They may end up splitting the votes which may affect the winning possibilities of either of the two major alliances.

Absence of strong personalities, who were able to sweep away real issues under the carpet due to their charismatic presence, is a blessing in disguise.  People may not be distracted anymore and may vote on real issues facing them.

Whatever be the results of this election, it will be a clear reflection of the ground realities prevailing in Tamilnadu at this point of time.  Parties need to accept the reality, interpret the signals given by the voters in the right manner, need to finetune their strategies to win over the people and work towards ensuring that Tamilnadu emerges as a strong state in terms of governance, development, growth, welfare and national integration.

Let's sincerely hope that this election sows the seeds for a new beginning.

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